Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 0.200223 0.240147 0.287898 0.349800 0.428769 0.527293 6.613492e-01
2025-06-08 0.147999 0.193711 0.254745 0.344102 0.474907 0.664901 9.725759e-01
2025-06-15 0.115812 0.163079 0.232408 0.345522 0.533747 0.851097 1.467504e+00
2025-06-22 0.092748 0.139188 0.213229 0.346703 0.597907 1.090287 2.254104e+00
2025-06-29 0.072688 0.114918 0.187085 0.328831 0.626636 1.298999 3.234759e+00
2025-07-06 0.051778 0.084536 0.142998 0.264313 0.538411 1.220409 3.487536e+00
2025-07-13 0.043450 0.074054 0.131970 0.261642 0.586572 1.520270 5.414965e+00
2025-07-20 0.038022 0.067630 0.127074 0.271060 0.674223 2.037143 9.552326e+00
2025-07-27 0.033979 0.062971 0.124627 0.286204 0.793946 2.846101 1.875103e+01
2025-08-03 0.030236 0.058106 0.120510 0.296324 0.913103 3.900167 3.806278e+01
2025-08-10 0.026310 0.052031 0.112049 0.291453 0.982242 4.915432 7.174303e+01
2025-08-17 0.022697 0.045941 0.102037 0.278195 1.012833 5.852657 1.292175e+02
2025-08-24 0.020257 0.042262 0.097774 0.284019 1.151423 8.230377 3.739526e+02
2025-08-31 0.018176 0.039015 0.093846 0.290020 1.311249 11.822241 1.461702e+03
2025-09-07 0.016511 0.036452 0.091170 0.300206 1.524579 17.972534 1.135567e+04
2025-09-14 0.015026 0.034042 0.088308 0.308970 1.761391 27.782530 4.139864e+05
2025-09-21 0.013335 0.030771 0.081935 0.299647 1.864014 37.317534 8.753962e+09
2025-09-28 0.010956 0.025275 0.067285 0.245958 1.528680 30.527523 5.033541e+09
2025-10-05 0.010011 0.023542 0.064417 0.246888 1.689368 44.814064 NaN
2025-10-12 0.009377 0.022547 0.063737 0.258621 1.995545 78.304290 NaN
2025-10-19 0.008879 0.021848 0.063900 0.275569 2.430402 156.334192 NaN
2025-10-26 0.008347 0.020956 0.063145 0.287545 2.872274 314.139900 NaN
2025-11-02 0.007687 0.019564 0.060182 0.284746 3.114061 529.208854 NaN